Monday, February 06, 2006

By-election anxiety heals Brown and McConnell rift

THE first minister and the chancellor agreed to stage a public show of unity yesterday as Labour's by-election campaign in Dunfermline and West Fife entered its final week.

Jack McConnell and Gordon Brown were photographed together for the first time since their public spat over the Forth road bridge tolls last month.

The photo opportunity was arranged by party strategists to shore up Labour's support. Despite defending an 11,000 majority, private polling figures show that the Scottish National party and the Liberal Democrats are gaining ground.

The campaign, in the constituency which neighbours the chancellor's, has been rocked by a series of public relations disasters. As well as Brown's and McConnell's falling out, there was the closure of the Lexmark factory in Rosyth with the loss of 700 jobs.

As polling enters its final few days Catherine Stihler, the Labour candidate, is facing renewed pressure amid allegations that she has missed a series of crucial votes in the European parliament which could have safeguarded Scottish jobs.

One of the debates, on fishing rights around Shetland, followed a report that she had written. Other votes included liberalising port services and state aid for companies wishing to relocate, which could have affected the Lexmark decision.

'She has not been in parliament in Strasbourg or in Brussels for some weeks. As a leader you are elected to do a job and she's not been here,' said Alyn Smith, the nationalist MEP.

Tensions in the Labour camp have been raised by private polls by the Lib Dems and the SNP showing that Labour's majority is vulnerable.

A poll this week by the Lib Dems of 6,000 people in the constituency found that the swing they needed to win the seat had been cut from 11% at the general election to 5%.

Another poll of 900 voters by the SNP found that Labour were on 36%, the SNP 34%, the Lib Dems 15% and the Tories 12%.

Professor John Curtice, of the department of government at Strathclyde University, said that Labour could be run close on Thursday. 'In by-elections in Scotland the Labour party tends to lose votes. It has happened every time over the past 20 years, in opposition or in government,' he said.

'Dunfermline and West Fife is not an overwhelming safe Labour seat. My expectation is the Labour party will win but with a much reduced majority. But I cannot rule out a Labour loss - it's not inconceivable.'

Sunday Times

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